I don't think MS would be shoveling money at a relatively small primarily ADV game publisher under any conditions that they try and secure rights to games from XYZ company. That's pretty risky and circuitous.
MS has been known for doing similar deals with other Japanese companies. MS actually approached G.rev and asked them to port Senko no Ronde exclusively to the 360, giving them 360 dev kits for free in the process (possibly other things as well), and there is also
this (has some NSFW stuff). But in this case, I think it was 5pb who approached MS first, but it was MS who laid down the conditions. I agree that it was risky, and I'm sure MS has learned their lesson now. But keep in mind that the 360 is in last place in Japan, so MS sometimes needs to take risks to try to get ahead (or at least to keep from falling even further behind).
It would make better sense to directly court XYZ company and negotiate licensing. Cave seems to be on pretty good terms with MS. It seems odd that they aren't releasing titles on the PS3.
In retrospect, that would have been the better option, but it wasn't until 5pb's incompetence showed itself that it became apparent. I'm guessing it was cheaper (and/or would seem less desperate) for 5pb to do it than for MS to do it directly. MS, 5pb, and Cave were all going to get something out of the deal. It also wasn't until after the 5pb deals that Cave became directly involved with 360 development.
5pb has been releasing a lot of ADV games on many platforms lately(someones gotta publish all those KID titles
). And a lot of those titles being released on the PS2, PSP, and Xbox 360.
Aren't there only a handful that are
really exclusive to the 360? And even then, isn't Chaos Head a port of a PC game? Though I don't know as pending Steins;Gate has dropped/is dropping on PC.
The majority of ADV games begin life as PC games and are then ported to consoles/handhelds, but it seems like 5pb's focus is shifting more and more towards the 360 for console exclusive ports of them. The upcoming port of Tayutama will be console exclusive for the 360 (as was the Chaos;Head port). Steins;Gate will be a 360 exclusive from the very beginning (maybe timed, but who knows). Though I find it odd that they're starting to focus so much on the 360, when the market for ADV games is still far larger on the PS2 (two the recently released Memories Off 6 games sold much better on the PS2 than the 360, despite being released at the same time).
But anyways, if you have a more logical theory for what's going on, I'd be very interested in hearing it. Seriously.