Retro Game Bubble - Will it grow, decline, or finally pop?

[trenton_net]

Hey gang,

Right now it seems everyone is trying to get into the "retro" game craze. Many consoles that were once cheap and easy to enjoy games on, are now being driven up in price by collectors/profiteers/resellers. It's such a shame really, since these games should be enjoyed and played!

Does anyone think this will just continue to become a bigger problem? Or do you think it's generational, and once that generation passes, it will return back to normal?

I've seen the NES, PC-Engine/TG16, Sega Saturn, and other markets inflate dramatically. Since I just started my Neo Geo adventure, I can only assume it's having an effect here. But I assume less so, since a high barrier to entry keeps some people away (Cost of arcade hardware, consolized systems, knowledge required to get into the scene, etc)?

Anyway, I'd be interested to hear what others think!

 

[Kid Panda]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

 

[max 330 mega]

Absolutely shit noob predictor of future and beyond! Once our generation (24-50+ years of age currently occupying this one site alone) pass away the trend will fade! rejoice 90+ year old dementia ridden parents of our generation who could care less if they are even still living, and early 30 old obese inept children raised on touch screens by the time the fall out of the majority of our generation occurs.
Cause, effect, cock? erect! Bend over.

 

[Fritz]

started my Neo Geo adventure, I can only assume it's having an effect here. But I assume less so, since a high barrier to entry keeps some people away?

 

[ChopstickSamurai]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

My thoughts exactly. Plus Everdrives are 20% off today too. Thanks to these wonderful devices I find myself being a hardware collector/hoarder now though.

 

[ChuChu Flamingo]

A timeless thread really, with massive price bumps on games double, triple, and sometimes 10x kaioken making the stock market look Raditz tier.

who knows if there will be a bubble, but I would wager more a price correction and lulling of the hobby (slowing down) than a flat out bubble bust. I mean look at Little Samson, literally a $1000 +- give or take and i've seen the same copy switch hands like 3 times in the span of a month each time the price going higher (the greater fool theory in full effect).

the high prices we see now are a result of a combination of many factors:resellers hoarding multiple copies,the youtube lets watch crowd who can't pick out their own games to save their life wanting it now, speculators, full set collectors,smart phones,ebay(trending now price and almost all shit being bin), and just people plain being impatient.

Pat the nes faggot makes a good point, lots of inventory is in the hands of resellers, even on YHJ ive noticed it as well. This isn't really a revelation to me, but nowadays you can see the same seller have multiple copies of games, even CIB copies of rare games.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATS-QJ9XGWk

 

[wyo]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

 

[Sikleflaming]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

I understand where you're coming from with this, but it's not like the bubble is just affecting games: if people want to use a flashcart, they need to have a console to play it in, and the price of those suckers is skyrocketing too.

I saw this travesty on sale and thought "oh, well that's fucking stupid, I thought everyone already had an NES, they have to be cheaper than that MSRP". Except a quick check to ebay shows they're not, NESs are running over $100 with a game or two and a controller. And not only that, but that shitty nes-classic re-release bundle that MSRPd at $60 dollars is now sold out and is selling everywhere, sometimes used for motherfucking $300(!!!!!!!)

Anyway, I guess the point is that even the total non-collector who just wants his original games to play (and I guess if we suppose he needs them hardware perfect and doesn't want to emulate, which is a whole 'nother discussion) now has to spend significantly more to get the console to run his flash carts in than he did even a few months ago.

Also the point is that people are dumb, fuck. I just can't get over amazon and ebay selling a nintendo made box shaped like an NES that presumably emulates 30 NES games for 250-300 big ones. wow.

 

[tacoguy]

Feels like we've had this thread a few times before.

I don't see any sort of bubble in the immediate future. Maybe prices on some of these games will stabilize after some point but I'm not expecting for prices to come down in the next 5-10 years. If anything I think they will keep going up.

 

[Electric Grave]

Perfect time to flip some goods, thanks for the heads up!

 

[RAZO]

Yea, I don't see the bubble bursting anytime soon but once those 80's and 90's kids start hitting that 40ish realm that's when you'll start seeing the prices on retro games start to decline.

At least that's what I think is going to happen. Eventually people will smarten up and not want to spend hundreds of dollars on the game they could play via emulator or flash cart.

 

[JoeAwesome]

No, Sikleflaming. No.

If the hardware's too expensive (What next? Flashcarts too expensive?), then just go emulate.

To OP's point, everyone's been getting into "retro" games, but it's grown over the last 5 or so; stop speculating what you can't predict; don't complain if a price is too high if you're a collector; and don't guess to know what "barriers" actually exist for the Neo-Geo. It's not that difficult to buy an CMVS or an AES system, and just start.

 

[trenton_net]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

Thanks for the great reply! I totally agree with you. Indeed there are wonderful alternatives for other consoles that are both cheap and effective for getting your video game fix (Console copiers, flash cards, etc).

For the Neo Geo, I think this has been somewhat of a hold-out. For a while now, there only existed a handful of solutions. 1. You could buy the games (which, in my honest opinion, are still quite affordable), 2. Buy a Bung MDG2 + Neo Geo adapter + All the RAM/SRAM packs required for your games (Hard to use, hard to find, expensive, and very limited in ability), or buy a multi-cartridge that plays games less than perfectly (Some are glitched to be totally unplayable). It was only recently that the NeoSD came out.

@tacoguy: Ah, I apologize if this isn't new. I'm strictly talking about it in terms of the Neo sense, since the effects are a little different here than on regular systems.

@Sikleflaming: I think you bring up a good point. Hardware prices increase all the time, and for non-collector who just wants his original games to play, it's getting harder and harder. Previously there were very limited options in terms of playing games correctly on real physical hardware (Outdated copier, buggy multi-carts, etc). Now that we have the NeoSD, It will be very interesting to see how things turn out.

EDIT: In regards to Sikleflaming's comment, I should preface that yes, you could always just play games in an emulator. But to Sikleflaming's defense, I agree with him that it isn't necessarily all black and white. I agree there are legitimate reasons for wanting to play original games on original hardware, much the same way reading a real book is different from reading a PDF online. Again, this is just my friendly opinion. Other people may differ on that.

 

[ginoscope]

My thoughts exactly. Plus Everdrives are 20% off today too. Thanks to these wonderful devices I find myself being a hardware collector/hoarder now though.

This is what I have been doing I find myself collecting hardware more than software and then using a flash cart to play. Sold off some of my saturn hardware and software and got myself a nice Japanese gray saturn and a Rhea and I love it.

I recently got an AES even though everyone is against it but my intention was to use it when a flash cart comes out which neosd just announced.

 

[GohanX]

This is what I have been doing I find myself collecting hardware more than software and then using a flash cart to play. Sold off some of my saturn hardware and software and got myself a nice Japanese gray saturn and a Rhea and I love it.

I recently got an AES even though everyone is against it but my intention was to use it when a flash cart comes out which neosd just announced.

You. I like you.

 

[oliverclaude]

...it will return back to normal?

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

no.

 

[trenton_net]

Sold off some of my saturn hardware and software and got myself a nice Japanese gray saturn and a Rhea and I love it.

I agree with this. The Rhea looks like a solid kit! The only downside, if I had to say one, is maybe the finicky file image format it requires. With Pseudo Saturn, Rhea, and the new one which uses the MPEG VCD slot, lots of great alternatives are definitely around the corner.

 

[Tanooki]

For those that want to be a collector, a collectard, or a gamer who just prefers investing in a game they enjoy (if that gives them the purpose of value to make effort to finish it, whatever) yes it's a a problem one that goes back over 5 years now.

Will it break soon? No, but I think it is moving into the next phase of things. It first took off with old 8 then 16bit Nintendo. When prices started scaring those but the hardcore and collectardish off, greedy tentacles stretched out beyond Nintendo. Nearly overnight the TG16 stuff no one gave a crap about suddenly got expensive, even the common bunk complete is more than a common or crap NES game then. Nintendo then saw the N64 then Cube creep up ore selectively depending on the title, not wide scale pillage.

As it got worse and more people got sick of it a few things changed which some note in here. Emulation came back pretty hard core on Android inspired devices that existed, new to arrive like Ouya or even the Retron5 and Retrobit boxes, and even NES Classic Edition. Nintendo got in on it early with the eshop Virtual Console and now that NES of theirs going for 6x the value. Also everdrives and their ilk got a hell of a lot more popular too, quite wide spread among gamers and priced out game collectors too.

The next step was the 2nd tier stuff people have lesser fonder memories of like your Sega stuff and other systems from Atari and the rest as the 80s/90s of that stuff has gone up selectively. SegaCD and Saturn used to not be much, now they get into the 100s with uncracked cases, not just isolated stuff like Panzer Dragoon Saga. Even in the last couple years Sega Genesis has shot up faster especially complete packages. In this year alone the Master System is pushing old retail and in some cases above on games when it used to be almost as throw away as what many consider Gamegear and Gameboy stuff for the most part.

As these things shoot up people are getting tired, pissed, and looking away again towards emulators (android) or stand alone solutions. And what happened with that, they went up too even if they're brand new. The vultures keep jumping on stuff as people walk off it to keep the money rolling in, eventually they'll run out of shit to fuck with they can make money on. The older stuff to be abused like NES and SNES much of it has been leveling off, maybe even a very slight but not worth noting decline. They kind of have hit a variable wall of pain people can't take. So it's getting to where it may drop or just rot. I'd argue if it wasn't for the everdrives of the world and the emulators on Android or stand alone boxes it could last longer but alternatives are coming in many forms, cheaper to free if you have existing materials and have no conscience against downloading old games for free.

 

[Missile]

As for Neo Geo. I think 'perfect' conversions/repros (in the way they look) will soon be available for all games. There's already a lot of sites selling very good conversions... As more and more conversions get produced and sold on, sometimes as the real deal - I think this will drive prices down and there could be a big fall. (just like when it first became possible to emulate Neo Geo).

Many of the inflated prices now are people trying to make money by buying all the supply then selling for a lot more. So these kind of people would panic and try to sell off stock fast. Making prices fall faster.

In the far future. Who knows? But if you look at the things people used to collect in the past - beyond very rare stamps, and coins many of these things are now worthless or very low value. There is too much supply of these items as people die and their collections get put up for sale. Not enough new people interested. Also Neo Geo carts will degrade and die.

 

[alphagamer]

If it pops, I am going to buy up all that stuff I ever dreamed of.

If not, I have a nice retirement fund.

Either way, sweeeet.

 

[Sikleflaming]

No, Sikleflaming. No.

If the hardware's too expensive (What next? Flashcarts too expensive?), then just go emulate.

I think it's true that if price is gonna be a big barrier than yeah it's probably only worth it to emulate, but the point I was trying to make was that one can be affected by this crazy price rise even if they are just trying to play the games and not collect. I can think of quite a few titles, especially on MAME, that run but are emulated pretty poorly; it's not inconceivable that someone might have an interest in running the game on the original hardware but not be a collector (and therefore they would be fine running their game on a flash cart, because it's gonna run identically to an original), and I think this is a nontrivial sector of the hobby that really truly isn't interested in collecting but is being negatively affected by the rise in prices, especially in hardware. I'm certianly not part of it, but I know it's there.

Also, speaking of emulation, wtf did people do back before MAME and other neo emulators were out? I'm sure the prices were much lower then but I'm sure people were much more voracious in trying to get their hands on games if there was literally no other way to play them.

Also also, is it just me, or do prices rise every year near Christmas and then never really go back down?

 

[egg_sanwich]

As for Neo Geo. I think 'perfect' conversions/repros (in the way they look) will soon be available for all games. There's already a lot of sites selling very good conversions... As more and more conversions get produced and sold on, sometimes as the real deal - I think this will drive prices down and there could be a big fall. (just like when it first became possible to emulate Neo Geo).

Many of the inflated prices now are people trying to make money by buying all the supply then selling for a lot more. So these kind of people would panic and try to sell off stock fast. Making prices fall faster.

In the far future. Who knows? But if you look at the things people used to collect in the past - beyond very rare stamps, and coins many of these things are now worthless or very low value. There is too much supply of these items as people die and their collections get put up for sale. Not enough new people interested. Also Neo Geo carts will degrade and die.

Do you have examples of some of these things people collected in the past? I've heard this argument before but usually without solid examples.

 

[Pasky]

I really wish people would stop talking about this. You want to "play" the games? Go buy an everdrive and you'll have every game at your disposal. If you're bitching about the cost of a game it's because you're a collector. Period.

I wish there was an arcade everdrive...I really do...

 

[FilthyRear]

NEEDLESS

WALL

OF

SHIT

Can someone PLEASE take this guy's fucking soapbox away?

 

[Sikleflaming]

Do you have examples of some of these things people collected in the past? I've heard this argument before but usually without solid examples.

I can think of a couple off the top of my head: honestly a lot of toys that were super hyped up (beanie babies obviously but also cabbage patch kids). Going back a bit further I can think of tons of things people used to collect like mad: pie birds, vintage toasters, porceline figurines (like hummel and precious moments) Norman Rockwell plates (ask your grandmother about these, I promise you she collected at least one of them at some point) and, with the exception of the few rarest examples in each category, those things are all pretty worthless now for exactly the reason that Missile said.

Not everything depreciates, and I can think of a lot of things that aren't stamps and coins that retained value pretty well (collectible cards of many kind come to mind at first), but I think he's right when he says that over the very very long term most collectibles lose value.