This is a very good point - but following that train of thought...doesn't that suggest that some of these jobs will eventually make their way back to the U.S., if we see that continued improvement in other countries? I actually think this could happen before things transition to some of these countries you mentioned....and maybe sooner than we think.
Now hear me out - there a couple of reasons why I feel this way. I think the rising wages overseas, coupled with a few other factors will eventually make it too costly to outsource.
1. The cost of oil. True, it's been low recently, but that was kept artificially low and could not be sustained for a long time. In fact, we've already seen some increases. So what does this mean for businesses in the US? It means that the cost of shipping is going to increase again. Now this has been an issue for a long time, but with the increasing wages abroad I think it is going to be felt more.
2. So with the increase in shipping costs, it makes sense for businesses to ship more at a time, right? If you are getting a candy cab from Japan, you are not going to order 1, you are going to order a full container. But the problem for most US businesses is that holding inventory costs money. So businesses have a dilemma...do they want to import more to get a better shipping rate and have higher inventory costs...or is more cost efficient to ship less, hold less inventory but then face the risk of not meeting consumer demand? Again, this has always been an issue...but I feel it will be more pronounced as the wages improve around the world.
3. And of course the last item is automation. I think we are getting to a point were some processes can become so automated with technology that it would simply be cheaper to have a machine do some work than outsourcing it. That's not good for the U.S. either, but even in those instances there will be some human component necessary (management, monitoring, QA, problem resolution, etc).
So anyway, I don't think we are going to see a huge increase in manufacturing jobs like we used to have in the US, but I do think some low skilled production jobs will come back. These may not be great jobs, but they will be better than working at McDonalds or BK. I know I am kind of talking in extremes here, but nonetheless I am somewhat optimistic about job creation in the U.S., which ultimately might help some communities like we're talking about.
