That's a lot closer to reality than $250.
I think the confusion & price range fluctuation is caused because there are 2 completely different worlds when it comes to estimating the value of items; specifically for this example, MVS carts. There is the community price, and there is the eBay price. One of those markets is the fantasy world, and the other market is the real world. The people in each market think they are in the real world, and the other market is the fantasy world. And they both swear up & down that they are right.
Secondly, the next issue that causes confusion & fluctuation is the specifics. As in; the perceived value of any given MVS cart is NOT the same from one cart to another. The devil is in the details. Such as the MAJOR difference between a mint US labeled cart with serials intact versus some crap condition JAP cart with ripped labels. (and to an extent original vs. bootleg)
Now around here, this second part doesn't really affect prices because when carts are bought & sold here, details are given, pictures are provided, members are informed. Where as on eBay, you can end up feeling cheated, or get the deal of the century, (as a buyer) depending on how misinformed the seller is. (and to an extent idiot buyers).
My point here is, as a general rule, when your looking to sell something, it's worthless. And when your looking to buy something, it's priceless. (granted, a bit exaggerated but usually the case) As a low end example, if you want to sell a samurai 1, you'll get $10. If you want to buy a samurai 1, it's $20.
So in the end, it's all a matter of what specifically do you want to buy? What condition does it have to be in? And how patient are you? Depending on the particulars, your results will vary GREATLY.