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- May 9, 2003
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So, any other political junkies psyched up about the primary season?
Here are the races I'm watching.
Pennsylvania Democratic:
Arlen Specter (D, PA) vs Joe Sestak (D, PA)
Arlen, former liberal-republican-cum-opportunistic-democrat is absolutely neck and neck with Sestak, a formal Navy Admiral running from his left. Specter has the backing of Pres. Obama, Gov. Rendell (who has a HUGE machine in PA), pretty much all the labor unions at the state level, and Veep Biden. Sestak has a surprising amount of momentum and a lot of endorsements from local unions which probably carry more weight. He's also been sweating this a lot more and has built a much more coherent campaign, he's got a serious shot at this.
The polls are WAY too close to call and the primary is tomorrow. A lot of people have been giving Sestak the edge here, and for good reason since he has just about all the momentum, but I wouldn't count out Arlen Specter's institutional support, and at the end of the day I think he has enough of a positive relationship with moderates that he could withstand this fight.
I say Specter by an absolute pinch.
Kentucky Republican:
Dr. Rand Paul vs. Sec St Trey Grayson (R, KY)
Grayson is gonna get his ass kicked, and this is going to look a LOT more interesting when Paul gets to the Senate.
In a dream world, he'd throw together some really interesting legislation that, while largely impossible to administer, could shake up the institution of the senate enough to get some legitimate policy debates back into play. From the right, all we hear is Big Government, from the left, all we hear is Special Interests. I personally like the idea of an institution with both Bernie Sanders (a socialist) and Rand Paul (a libertarian)...at least as long as Paul acts like one and doesn't become another GOP flunky.
But he probably will become a flunky because he lives in a state that likes appropriation funds just as much as anybody else, and all the lofty promises will probably mean bunk when he's faced with angry constituents wondering why he prevented them from getting highway money. Such is politics.
Anyway, I think Rand runs away with it.
Arkansas Democratic:
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D, AK) vs. Lt Gov Bill Halter (D, AK)
Like many of the liberals in Arkansas, I really, really do not like Blanche Lincoln, but she has such overwhelming establishment support that it may not matter much. Halter has the support of liberals and labor since he, y'know, has principals, but his momentum has been lost and I think Bill Clinton coming in to stump for Lincoln probably helped plug up the leak in her poll numbers. It's still close, but I personally think Lincoln is going to eek by and thus lose the general by a mile.
Lincoln by 4-5 points.
And here's a general race that I'm REALLY interested in...
Florida General:
Crist (I) vs Rubio (R) vs Meeks (D)
Man, what a great story this was. Crist was a few years from hopping off the GOP train anyway, but this race expedited that and I think it will do more to harm the GOP than any other race this year.
Crist is an interesting guy, he ran on a conservative record, but he's truly a much more 3rd way kind of guy. He's gay (not out yet but c'mon, that marriage is a sham), generally fiscally conservative, and while his stated record definitely leans right, he's had a not insignificant shift leftward that has made him one of my favorite personalities this year. He vetoes a terrible education bill, he's about to veto a terrible abortion bill, he proudly embraced the stimulus and saved his state, and he's pro gun. I have to say, I agree a lot with the new Crist and think he'll be a serious contender.
Rubio will, I think, fizzle out as the three way debates start in a few weeks. Meeks will lose ground to Crist who is going to make a serious shift for moderates, and he'll make Rubio look like a fool in the process. I see immigration as being a big turning point to the benefit of Crist as we get close to november.
I say, right now, Crist wins it and caucuses with the Democrats when he gets in. Anything can happen in more than 6 months of course, but I only see Meeks taking the brunt of the fallout.
What do you guys think? Any other races worth considering? Am I off base?
Here are the races I'm watching.
Pennsylvania Democratic:
Arlen Specter (D, PA) vs Joe Sestak (D, PA)
Arlen, former liberal-republican-cum-opportunistic-democrat is absolutely neck and neck with Sestak, a formal Navy Admiral running from his left. Specter has the backing of Pres. Obama, Gov. Rendell (who has a HUGE machine in PA), pretty much all the labor unions at the state level, and Veep Biden. Sestak has a surprising amount of momentum and a lot of endorsements from local unions which probably carry more weight. He's also been sweating this a lot more and has built a much more coherent campaign, he's got a serious shot at this.
The polls are WAY too close to call and the primary is tomorrow. A lot of people have been giving Sestak the edge here, and for good reason since he has just about all the momentum, but I wouldn't count out Arlen Specter's institutional support, and at the end of the day I think he has enough of a positive relationship with moderates that he could withstand this fight.
I say Specter by an absolute pinch.
Kentucky Republican:
Dr. Rand Paul vs. Sec St Trey Grayson (R, KY)
Grayson is gonna get his ass kicked, and this is going to look a LOT more interesting when Paul gets to the Senate.
In a dream world, he'd throw together some really interesting legislation that, while largely impossible to administer, could shake up the institution of the senate enough to get some legitimate policy debates back into play. From the right, all we hear is Big Government, from the left, all we hear is Special Interests. I personally like the idea of an institution with both Bernie Sanders (a socialist) and Rand Paul (a libertarian)...at least as long as Paul acts like one and doesn't become another GOP flunky.
But he probably will become a flunky because he lives in a state that likes appropriation funds just as much as anybody else, and all the lofty promises will probably mean bunk when he's faced with angry constituents wondering why he prevented them from getting highway money. Such is politics.
Anyway, I think Rand runs away with it.
Arkansas Democratic:
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D, AK) vs. Lt Gov Bill Halter (D, AK)
Like many of the liberals in Arkansas, I really, really do not like Blanche Lincoln, but she has such overwhelming establishment support that it may not matter much. Halter has the support of liberals and labor since he, y'know, has principals, but his momentum has been lost and I think Bill Clinton coming in to stump for Lincoln probably helped plug up the leak in her poll numbers. It's still close, but I personally think Lincoln is going to eek by and thus lose the general by a mile.
Lincoln by 4-5 points.
And here's a general race that I'm REALLY interested in...
Florida General:
Crist (I) vs Rubio (R) vs Meeks (D)
Man, what a great story this was. Crist was a few years from hopping off the GOP train anyway, but this race expedited that and I think it will do more to harm the GOP than any other race this year.
Crist is an interesting guy, he ran on a conservative record, but he's truly a much more 3rd way kind of guy. He's gay (not out yet but c'mon, that marriage is a sham), generally fiscally conservative, and while his stated record definitely leans right, he's had a not insignificant shift leftward that has made him one of my favorite personalities this year. He vetoes a terrible education bill, he's about to veto a terrible abortion bill, he proudly embraced the stimulus and saved his state, and he's pro gun. I have to say, I agree a lot with the new Crist and think he'll be a serious contender.
Rubio will, I think, fizzle out as the three way debates start in a few weeks. Meeks will lose ground to Crist who is going to make a serious shift for moderates, and he'll make Rubio look like a fool in the process. I see immigration as being a big turning point to the benefit of Crist as we get close to november.
I say, right now, Crist wins it and caucuses with the Democrats when he gets in. Anything can happen in more than 6 months of course, but I only see Meeks taking the brunt of the fallout.
What do you guys think? Any other races worth considering? Am I off base?
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