The COVID-19 Thread and Hypothetical Boxing Predictions

norton9478

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mrjmr25 deserves a better rebuttal than this for his well reasoned post.

He compared Covid 19 deaths WITH intervention to Influenza deaths (without intervention) to discount said intervention.

Furthermore, there can be no tiered approach. That was tried in early March. In many respects, The US is still taking a tiered approach.
 

norton9478

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My personal fear of COVID-19 is the same fear level I have for heart disease, seasonal flu, or a car accident. .

Well, if the hospitals are overburdened with Covid-19, good luck if you get in a car accident.
 

StevenK

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He compared Covid 19 deaths WITH intervention to Influenza deaths (without intervention) to discount said intervention.

Furthermore, there can be no tiered approach. That was tried in early March. In many respects, The US is still taking a tiered approach.

I'd be surprised if influenza has no intervention in the US - don't you have a vaccination program for the vulnerable?

As for no tiered approach - I expect that's exactly what they'll do to unwind the lockdown, how else can you dip in a toe to see what happens without throwing the +70s to the wolves?
 

mjmjr25

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Well, if the hospitals are overburdened with Covid-19, good luck if you get in a car accident.

You're exactly right. Part of the over-reaction is taking people who normally would have died out of nursing homes and into hospitals. I have been in healthcare 23 years - never before have people with influenza symptoms been removed from their skilled nursing facility and into hospital ICU's. This is another part that serves no real purpose, makes no logical sense, and is a change from established practice - and yes, if you get in a car wreck in a town that has an overloaded ICU, your healthcare may very likely be impacted. It seems the only reason for doing this is to "get COVID out of nursing homes" - the same nursing homes that lose people to Influenza and Pneumonia every year. People watch these case counters like it's some sort of lottery.

I haven't seen Lithy, StevenK, Karou or myself say this wasn't new, this wasn't serious. The conversation i'm seeing is there were probably less impactful and more thoughtful ways to slow the spread of the disease. Targeting the vulnerable with quarantine type measures. Emphasizing rapid testing and antibody testing instead of politicizing ventilators.

If you look at countries like Iceland and Norway - they've done almost nothing other than encourage social distancing and hand-washing, things they normally do pretty well already. Sweden is an example of a Western country that has done nothing other than PSA's about being careful around the elderly and sick. Their curve and numbers are on par (per capita) with countries that have taken drastic measures.

To recap: it's new, it's scary, it's dangerous, it's adding a large caseload on top of an EXISTING near capacity case-load, and flattening the curve MAKES SENSE. How that is done is where the debate is happening. That's the goal post. Try to keep it where it is.
 

StevenK

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I haven't seen Lithy, StevenK, Karou or myself say this wasn't new, this wasn't serious.

As I often don't read his posts I hadn't realised my viewpoint might in some way coincide with karou's.

I would like to hereby declare a full u-turn on my position.
 

Xavier

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If the mortality rate drops because lots of people who were presumed to have avoided infection (and thus would be modeled as people that could have died if infected) instead actually got it, displayed no symptoms, and now have antibodies, then the suggestion that millions would have died has to be revised downward.

It actually isn't very easy to transmit this virus. Its droplet precaution. .



This isn't fully known right now. You may not even be able to build an immunity to it at all.

It can also differ from person to person strain to strain.

Similar viruses that people have been able to build an immunity to lasts anywhere from three weeks to five years.

WHO officials say it’s unclear whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune to second infection

World Health Organization officials said not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection.

This raises concerns that patients don’t develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.

“With regards to recovery and then reinfection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program.


Recent studies have shown it is possible to contract influenza through airborne particles.

It's a very small percentage though.

I would imagine if you breath in 10 virus particles your body can easily kick its butt and throw it out with the trash. If you inhale a water droplet with 10,000,000 virus particles and they replicate it could be a hard thing to get over. I'm not a pathologist or virologist though.
 
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mjmjr25

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As I often don't read his posts I hadn't realised my viewpoint might in some way coincide with karou's.

I would like to hereby declare a full u-turn on my position.

No, no, no...it's ok. Check the unpopular opinions thread. Karou-love is en vogue. You're good.
 

wyo

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I am confused. Is it a bio-weapon or related to 5G or both?

Since eclypse never responded, I went out and did my own research. Not sure if you guys are ready for this since it hasn't been announced yet but here goes.

sheeple.jpg
 

Xavier

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You're exactly right. Part of the over-reaction is taking people who normally would have died out of nursing homes and into hospitals. I have been in healthcare 23 years - never before have people with influenza symptoms been removed from their skilled nursing facility and into hospital ICU's. This is another part that serves no real purpose, makes no logical sense, and is a change from established practice - and yes, if you get in a car wreck in a town that has an overloaded ICU, your healthcare may very likely be impacted. It seems the only reason for doing this is to "get COVID out of nursing homes" - the same nursing homes that lose people to Influenza and Pneumonia every year. People watch these case counters like it's some sort of lottery.

Maybe it differs from state to state.

My ex has worked as a CNA in nursing homes for almost a decade now. I think currently she's doing some sort of physical therapy though. Anyways locally... whenever I've visited her work it looks like a vast majority of the muscle is other CNA's. You might have one or two RN's on shift overseeing everything and I would hope an MD walks up and down the halls every so often and looks at some of the paperwork.

Sorry I wouldn't call someone with four/six months training in medicine highly skilled.

That nursing home that had 35 patients die a couple months ago in Washington state.... 50 of the workers tested positive for covid-19. They put the patients on quarantine now and last time I heard the HCP that have tested positive are still working there and tending to their needs.

Totally sounds like a recipe for success to me.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/wash...ly-50-employees-test-positive-for-coronavirus
 

mjmjr25

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That nursing home that had 35 patients die a couple months ago in Washington state.... 50 of the workers tested positive for covid-19. They put the patients on quarantine now and last time I heard the HCP that have tested positive are still working there and tending to their needs.

Totally sounds like a recipe for success to me.

By skilled nursing home - i'm referring to skilled nursing homes. Those are be definition homes with physicians on staff and ordering care; care which can only be administered by an RN. The majority of hospitals also work as you are describing - NA's and MA's outnumber RN's and LPN's. I'm not sure the point you are making. There are no (legal) skilled nursing homes in which NA's (CNA's) are administering physician ordered care.

As far as the Kirkland Nursing Home - again, don't see your point. A staff person went to Wuhan, returned to job at Nursing Home, they had a party to include sharing cake with staff and residents, she worked for 4 days before developing symptoms, all the while spreading the disease through the facility. That can happen anywhere. A great reason to suggest strict work and visitation guidelines in a vulnerable community like that. How does transferring those people to a hospital help? (Kirkland didn't, but others now are, and overloading hospitals while emptying nursing homes).
 

lithy

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Look up George Orwell’s 1984 book. Look up Agenda 21.

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NeoSneth

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There are actually hundreds of corona viruses. It's a fairly broad category of viruses.

Lately, I've been thinking about how much positive will come from this event. This is the mildest possible Pandemic if you consider all the other viruses out there. Response has been a shit show with respect to WHO, and now we know who is useless and who isn't. CDC and big Pharma/Biotech acted immediately. Logistics will be permanently improved with regards to hospital supplies. More volunteer emergency personnel will be trained to deal with epidemics, e.g. firefighters, police, etc.

The bad that will come from this. Local governments are going to want more official control of the population. All this social distancing ordinance is completely illegal right now, and they know it. Next year, it will likely be legal for municipalities to keep you off the streets whenever they want. Similar to the freedoms we permanently lost with the Patriot Act, government will use this to get more control.
 
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norton9478

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If you look at countries like Iceland and Norway - they've done almost nothing other than encourage social distancing and hand-washing, things they normally do pretty well already.

Iceland and Norway also have very strong testing regimes, particularly toward the beginning of the outbreak.

Of course, we are a long way from having anything close to that. In part because the government (the trump administration) screwed it up so much. Some of it was bad luck, much of it was bad planning.
 

norton9478

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There is a clause known as "in the best interests of NG.com"
 
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