The COVID-19 Thread and Hypothetical Boxing Predictions

eclypse

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Let me add something real fast before its removed.

*snip*
 
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Burning Fight!!

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Similar to the freedoms we permanently lost with the Patriot Act, government will use this to get more control.

We forgot... :cryingbaldeagle:

Are freedoms are eroding day by day and the sad thing is that there's nothing much anyone can do, really. Welcome to the 21st century

edit: best redactions ever
 
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mjmjr25

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Iceland and Norway also have very strong testing regimes, particularly toward the beginning of the outbreak.

Of course, we are a long way from having anything close to that. In part because the government (the trump administration) screwed it up so much. Some of it was bad luck, much of it was bad planning.

I'm curious what the Trump Administration screwed up so badly - please elaborate. I've shared my opinion on that - (the waffling, the inconsistency).

If it's testing prowess like your posts seems to elude - that's trash. The US has done 3x more tests than any other country. You (the collective liberal you) can't complain he's bullying others and trying to steal tests and equipment, and then out the other side of the mouth say he/they aren't doing enough. The Trump hatred is so thick once again the only talking point is "whatever Trump does we hate, even if it means we don't care which side of the issue he's on". The problem with that logic applied to Trump - he doesn't have a core philosophy, he's been on both sides of every part of this (as he normally is), so therefore so have his detractors. It's petty, arguments can't find footing and people can't be taken seriously.

Iceland is a great example of pool testing - beyond that comparing a country of >400,000 people to a country with 330,000,000 people? What does expansive pool testing do other than confirm the mortality rate of this is quite lower than current data suggest? Every respected expert has said act like you are contagious (even if you have no symptoms). That's all those Nordic countries are doing - acting like they all have it - they aren't shuddering their economies. I think you made my point for me.
 
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norton9478

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First, the tests were bad. that was bad luck. But they also failed to plan for the testing failures (failure 1). They also were slow to remove the red tape on private labs doing testing (failure2). Something that the previous pandemic team had at the top of thier playbook. But that team was disbanded (failure 3), and their recommendations were not considered (failure 4). Now, the administration is hoping that at these testing labs will up the game but refuse to invoke the Defense Production Act (failure 5).

Regardless of how this all happened, The US is way behind on testing even now. More tests than any other country doesn't mean shit as far as public health goes. What matters is testing as a percentage of population and testing as a percent of the size of the epidemic.

The US is not testing people enough people to know the size and scope of the epidemic. They are not testing enough to reopen the economy. They are only testing people who have a strong chance of being positive. They aren't testing well enough to find asymptomatic carriers.

Pool testing has its uses when the chances of any person in a given pool are relatively small. So you test say 10 people at once. If it comes back negative, then you did ten tests for slightly above the price/effort of one. If there is a positive, you go back and test each one individually (or in smaller pools).
It (or something like it ) is a pretty common method for HIV.

What doesn't work is having backlogs at testing facilities that take 7 days to process a test.
 
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Naika

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Here's a very very good video showing how S. Korea's response has helped it along during this pandemic:
 

mjmjr25

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Regardless of how this all happened, The US is way behind on testing even now. More tests than any other country doesn't mean shit as far as public health goes. What matters is testing as a percentage of population and testing as a percent of the size of the epidemic.

The US is not testing people enough people to know the size and scope of the epidemic. They are not testing enough to reopen the economy. They are only testing people who have a strong chance of being positive. They aren't testing well enough to find asymptomatic carriers.

What doesn't work is having backlogs at testing facilities that take 7 days to process a test.

So by that measure every country has been a colossal failure? Blanket dismissal of testing 3x more than any other nation already exposes your bias.

Your (failure 1) is in conflict with (failure 2). You may only choose 1. The EXACT and SPECIFIC reason for (failure 2) is because of (failure 1). You want to expedite private lab testing, but you also want to be prepared for test failures. That is what the red tape as you call it does. It verifies a test is legitimate before becoming available. I'm sure you are ware DHHS and FDA "red tape" was ENHANCED during Mr. Obama's administration...extensively.

The US, on a per capita basis, has tested more than France, UK, Iran, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland...the only countries that are testing on a higher per capita are countries who were hit harder earlier (Spain, Italy) or very wealthy nations with very small populations (Iceland, Israel, UAE, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc).

There are a lot of things Trump has done wrong here and elsewhere, but it is not with testing. The requirements to get a test make sense and the lack of mass supply makes sense. MANY private lab tests - both homegrown and from Europe / Asia have proven large numbers of misses as well as false positives.

Ultimatately - testing should not be an issue for anyone to hang their hat on. Testing is nearly irrelevant. Everyone should assume contagious - 80% of people who actually develop symptoms should stay home and self quarantine (just like they normally would if they had a flu. You shouldn't need a test to tell you that (unless you're a celebrity).
 

norton9478

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It is called a backup plan. You don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

For the record, The Red Tape on private labtesting was was bush era. It had a reason and a place. The pandemic playbook had that at the top of the list of things that would need to be changed.
 

norton9478

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Ultimatately - testing should not be an issue for anyone to hang their hat on. Testing is nearly irrelevant. Everyone should assume contagious - 80% of people who actually develop symptoms should stay home and self quarantine (just like they normally would if they had a flu. You shouldn't need a test to tell you that (unless you're a celebrity).

If we assume that everyone has it, we don't reopen any portion of the economy.
 

norton9478

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The US, on a per capita basis, has tested more than France, UK, Iran, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland...the only countries that are testing on a higher per capita are countries who were hit harder earlier (Spain, Italy) or very wealthy nations with very small populations (Iceland, Israel, UAE, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc).

Well, you mentioned Iceland and Norway. Norway has tested 23,483 per million whereas the US has tested 9,000 per million population.

The US is as at a point where the testing regime is not nearly pervasive enough to reopen the economy. You can cite all the statistics you want but right now, tests are scarce. Right now, we are testing to find out who has it. To reopen the economy, you have to be able to test to find out who doesn't have it. You have to find out who is safe to go out, and you have to find out quickly.
 

basic

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If we assume that everyone has it, we don't reopen any portion of the economy.

as long as you acknowledge and understand that this approach can have rammifications. i'm not saying you, specifically, but it seems like a lot of people think that problems can be solved in a silo and not affect anything else.

edit: also, if everyone has it...then there is no risk of additional spread so what would be the point in not reopening?
 

mjmjr25

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If we assume that everyone has it, we don't reopen any portion of the economy.

I don't think you understand, or maybe don't believe what all the science about this disease says.

Oh my.

If you use a tiered approach; IE isolate the vulnerable 20% (which handicap, social security for medical, and over 65 represent...and i'm making this up...probably less than 1% of the workforce)...you can open up 99% of the workforce/economy. You could do this today. Some countries are already doing it with same sort of numbers we have here.

Yes - Norway, meant Sweden - 5 million per capita. Same difference for the point being made.
 

Xavier

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The US, on a per capita basis, has tested more than France, UK, Iran, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland...the only countries that are testing on a higher per capita are countries who were hit harder earlier (Spain, Italy) or very wealthy nations with very small populations (Iceland, Israel, UAE, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc).

Hey guess what we are one of those countries that were hit hard and early...how hard or early , we don't really know because we didn't test anybody and they didn't work.

Now none of that matters anymore because pretty much the whole country is going to need to be tested, some people regularly. Maybe there's some isolated pockets out there that are unaffected. Some hippy communes, militia compounds and Indian Reservations that haven't left in several months. dunno

We can wait a year or two for a booster or a vaccine

We can open and close stuff trying to guess the curve so we don't overwhelm the medical system.

We can let it run it's course and kill millions hoping for herd immunity when there may not be any such thing.

Regardless everybody is still going to need to wear PPE (which we don't have) and practice social distancing the whole time.

Sad fact is though we are running out of options quickly.

Here's a list of countries that have tested more than the US per capita, justify it however you want but it's still better than just stating some rando happy feel fact.

Faeroe Islands/Iceland/UAE/Luxembourg/Gibraltar/Malta/Bahrain/Falkland Islands/San Marino/Isle of Man/Liechtenstein/Norway/Brunei/Estonia/Switzerland/Andorra/Channel Islands/Portugal/Qatar/Italy/Slovenia/Austria/Greenland/Germany/Latvia/Lithuania/Cyprus/Ireland/Australia/Israel/New Zealand/Hong Kong/Spain/Denmark/Singapore/Czechia/Canada/Aruba/S. Korea/New Caledonia/Russia
 
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evil wasabi

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Chinese cases are on the rise again, so not sure if reopening is a great idea.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

If you use a tiered approach; IE isolate the vulnerable 20% (which handicap, social security for medical, and over 65 represent...and i'm making this up...probably less than 1% of the workforce)...you can open up 99% of the workforce/economy. You could do this today. Some countries are already doing it with same sort of numbers we have here.

Which other countries are working with over 500K infected? I don't know man. You've been pretty informative but today your posts look like hot takes from Steven Miller's daily email blast. Can you give sources for your claims?
 

norton9478

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I don't think you understand, or maybe don't believe what all the science about this disease says.

I understand that one person can infect 50 (as happened in New Rochelle). I understand that there is a thing such as asymptomatic transmission. I understand that at one factory in Sioux Falls ID, 250 workers have been infected.



Yes - Norway, meant Sweden - 5 million per capita. Same difference for the point being made.

Sweden has a very small tests/million population rate. And it has a relatively high deaths per million. Whereas Norway is high testing and low and deaths. So I'm not sure what point you were trying to make.

NOT SAME DIFFERENCE!

And some think that Sweden is far from being out of the woods.


If you use a tiered approach; IE isolate the vulnerable 20% (which handicap, social security for medical, and over 65 represent...and i'm making this up...probably less than 1% of the workforce)...you can open up 99% of the workforce/economy. You could do this today. .

I don't see how that is possible. And people under 65 are very vulnerable. They make up about half of hospitalizations as things are now.
 

Xavier

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I don't see how that is possible. And people under 65 are very vulnerable. They make up about half of hospitalizations as things are now.

I tried to do a quick look up earlier but couldn't find any reliable stats, nothings really been updated recently and most of it is based old stuff like the info released from Wuhan...and we all know that's pretty much worthless.
 

Xavier

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I don't think you understand, or maybe don't believe what all the science about this disease says.

Oh my.

If you use a tiered approach; IE isolate the vulnerable 20% (which handicap, social security for medical, and over 65 represent...and i'm making this up...

Actually 15-20% is a rough estimate of the population that will require some sort of medical attention if infected. Not all of them are old or immuno compromised. Maybe they'll need some cold pills or antibiotics or they'll need a ventilator and a place to die. Who knows.
 

wyo

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mjmjr25: I don't think you're properly factoring in just how unhealthy the US population is compared to the rest of the developed world.
 

Xavier

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Which other countries are working with over 500K infected? I don't know man. You've been pretty informative but today your posts look like hot takes from Steven Miller's daily email blast. Can you give sources for your claims?

Anybody else see these Facebook posts:

Yeah 25,000 dead.... but 35,500 recovered!
How come the news media isn't reporting this?

Well I dunno maybe because that's a shitty depressing number?
What is that like 30% more recover than die?
Doesn't sound too promising to me.
 

StevenK

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Anybody else see these Facebook posts:

Yeah 25,000 dead.... but 35,500 recovered!
How come the news media isn't reporting this?

Well I dunno maybe because that's a shitty depressing number?
What is that like 30% more recover than die?
Doesn't sound too promising to me.

Careful man, you're stepping into conspiracy theory territory with this, there's just no value in it.
 

Xavier

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Careful man, you're stepping into conspiracy theory territory with this, there's just no value in it.

Well no actually these are real numbers (ok I rounded up) but it's being posted by say Trump supporters saying it's a positive good thing. The news only reports on negative stuff.
But really if you think about it ...it's not really that good of news.
 
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famicommander

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Anybody else see these Facebook posts:

Yeah 25,000 dead.... but 35,500 recovered!
How come the news media isn't reporting this?

Well I dunno maybe because that's a shitty depressing number?
What is that like 30% more recover than die?
Doesn't sound too promising to me.

To be considered "recovered" they have to be tested again a second time after their symptoms go away.

Many people who recover will never get that second test, they'll just go about their lives as normal.
 

mjmjr25

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Here's a list of countries that have tested more than the US per capita, justify it however you want but it's still better than just stating some rando happy feel fact.

Faeroe Islands/Iceland/UAE/Luxembourg/Gibraltar/Malta/Bahrain/Falkland Islands/San Marino/Isle of Man/Liechtenstein/Norway/Brunei/Estonia/Switzerland/Andorra/Channel Islands/Portugal/Qatar/Italy/Slovenia/Austria/Greenland/Germany/Latvia/Lithuania/Cyprus/Ireland/Australia/Israel/New Zealand/Hong Kong/Spain/Denmark/Singapore/Czechia/Canada/Aruba/S. Korea/New Caledonia/Russia

Happy rando fact? Nothing about any of this is happy feels. It's difficult choices - crush the economy, retirements, divide the working vs non-working, landlords vs tenants, etc or try something less disruptive that would very likely result in more deaths.

New Caledonia, Greenland, Aruba, Malta...that's the point. There are dozens of things to hold Trump accountable for, including marching Fauci out there today to backtrack on his CNN statements, but testing is a worldwide problem. That some Dutch protectorate with wealthy 2nd home owners is able to get lots of testing done isn't indicative of a Trump failure. This is a brand new thing and the testing part should be less politicized than it is.

Only Russia on that list is near the US population, a little more than 1/3.

Which other countries are working with over 500K infected? I don't know man. You've been pretty informative but today your posts look like hot takes from Steven Miller's daily email blast. Can you give sources for your claims?

Confirmed cases - none. I suspect most countries with populations in the millions are. We won't know that until antibody tests come out. There are a lot if estimates suggesting anywhere from 10 to 100x cases are not tested / confirmed. That would put the US at 5 million to 50 million. That number goes up in less developed countries.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

The only Steven Miller I know is a mean Windjammers player - i'll assume the one you refer to is in the Drudge or Breitbart vein which I avoid. The only thing I posted today that I think was straight opinion, I literally said, "i'm making this up" - referring to which percentage of the workforce should be actively side-lined in a tiered approach to relaxing restriction.
 
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